Restoring Solidarity: What Israelis Actually Want
Ben Gvir is an extremist. Hardly anyone in Israel actually likes this tool. And I’ll tell you why: for moderate Israelis on both the left and the right, disengagement policies have actually been extremely popular. It was the promise to withdraw from something like ninety percent of Judea and Samaria that won the right-wing Olmert government its mandate in 2006. This is after Israel leaves Gaza to Hamas and Lebanon to Hezbollah. Despite experiencing over one hundred suicide bombings over the course of the Second Intifada, Israelis in 2006 by and large still wanted to disengage and leave; if only that would finally bring them peace.
The common thinking was that the impetus for the Second Intifada was fundamentally the same as it was for the First; that is, so long as Israel has military presence in these places, there will always be terror attacks disguised as “resistance”. Even though Yasser Arafat was offered literally anything and everything he asked for at Camp David with Barak and Clinton, and instead chose to launch the Second Intifada. If they would not accept peace willingly, then peace would be forced unilaterally by Israel. After all, if these people and places are granted de-facto statehood, then the international community will hold them accountable for unjust violence and crimes they commit. Right?…Right?
And then, Hamas kidnaps Gilad Shalit into Gaza, and Hezbollah launches the Second Lebanon War. Both attacks come from places Israel has unilaterally withdrawn from under the popular disengagement policies. The lesson Israelis learn from this is that their current neighbors will never stop attacking them under any circumstances. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place; they cannot stay where they are and they cannot leave either. And in comes a figure from the past, a former prime minister with a new policy and mandate. That person is Benjamin Netanyahu; and his policy is, in essence, to do absolutely nothing.
For a decade and a half, that is exactly what Bibi did. Absolutely nothing. No withdrawal, no reclamation. He left Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. He maintained de-facto military control over Judea and Samaria and the current quasi-legal status of the Golan Heights.
And the thing is, this policy was extraordinarily popular. It was prosperous, even. Israel’s GDP has doubled in this period of time. They played a defensive game with the Iron Dome (and affiliated systems) and state-of-the-art fences and intelligence. They were determined to simply wait out the hate of their neighbors; because on a long enough time scale, if they just continued to grow and prosper eventually they would so utterly eclipse the destructive nature of the forces against them that their “resistance” would be a moot point.
In hindsight, we all know what this policy resulted in. If the unbelievable security and intelligence failure of October 7th had not upended the entire world, it is entirely possible (and indeed probable) that the “do nothing” policy would still be in full force. Would it have actually worked for decades more? I tend to doubt it. Complacency may have been the root issue of the government’s October 7th failures, but how does one maintain the level of vigilance required for perfect defense over the course of decades?
Lately, I have been getting back into chess. It is as true now as ever that sometimes the best defense is a good offense. The Iron Dome has saved countless innocent lives on both sides of borders. But simply relying on its protection ninety-nine percent of the time and not going out to eliminate launch pads for terrorist rocket fire creates a situation where approximately a hundred thousand Israelis are displaced from their homes in this Simchat Torah War that is still ongoing.
I am not a military expert. Far be it from me to critique the intricacies of the operational side. I can only speak to grand strategy. Bibi’s policy was consistent. It was popular. And without knowing what we know now, it would probably still appear to be the right choice.
But it, too, died on October 7th. Even Bibi has recognized that, even though he refuses to take personal responsibility for that day. This I think is the biggest reason Israelis dislike Bibi. It doesn’t really matter which “fall guys” have come forward from the military to accept their own personal failures. The buck stops at the top; and if you cannot accept that responsibility, then you do not deserve to be there.
Regardless, Israelis will never again trust a fence if on the other side of it lies Hamas. So let me ask: what do Israelis actually want? The simple and the obvious answer is that they want peace; but it is probably too simple and too obvious to be useful. They do not want to be attacked anymore. They will not tolerate their children being slaughtered; not again. Any situation which may lead to another October 7th down the line is right out. But they also do not want perpetually angry neighbors with a justified bone to pick. They are unwilling to commit injustice in order to secure peace for themselves; and who can blame them? The greatest treasure in life is being able to sleep with a clear conscience. They must secure security for themselves, and they must do it in a way that they can live with themselves afterwards.
However: don’t be fooled into thinking Israelis are a monolith, either by me or Bibi or anyone. There are as many competing political views in Israel as there are Israelis. There are good people in that country, and there are bad people. They’re all just people. At the end of the day, that’s all any of us are.
Until next week, stay safe. Stay sane. Am Yisrael Chai.