Ceasefire and War: The Human Cost
There is a debate that has been raging in Israel for well over five hundred days. It is not a new debate; if you read my article on Gilad Shalit, you ought to know that taking hostages is a trademark move of Hamas. Yahya Sinwar, the architect of October 7th and now a decomposing disgrace to humanity was one of the over one thousand convicted terrorists that were released in the Gilad Shalit hostage deal in 2011. What Hamas learned from this is that hostage-taking is a very lucrative and efficient way to maximize their own strength relative to the indomitable strength of the Israeli people. Because Israelis refuse to leave their own behind, no matter the cost.
It is quite a commendable position to take, especially when you’ve grown up in the ‘Second Intifada’ and various wars and constant terrorist attacks besides. It is nigh impossible to find a family or a life in Israel that hasn’t in some way been touched by terrorism. Those thousand convicted terrorists that were released for Gilad Shalit—each one had victims. Each one took something precious from ordinary Israeli citizens. And yet, the society felt and still feels an immense duty to bring everyone home; even if it means releasing those who hurt them most.
This is but one of the many aspects of Israeli society that the world cannot grasp. All those antisemites waving flags of ‘Palestine’ and wearing culturally-appropriated keffiyehs and holding placards demanding ‘Ceasefire Now’ while at the same time chanting “from the river to the sea…” understand exactly nothing about the reality in Israel. And publications like Haaretz and Al Jazeera certainly do their best to further confound the weak-minded in the international community. No one wants an end to this war more than Israelis. No one wants a hostage deal more than the majority of the population of Israel.
But what October 7th made absolutely crystal clear is that Israelis can no longer tolerate living next to the genocidal, monstrous, almost cartoonishly evil terrorists of Hamas. The depth of trauma that was inflicted on October 7th is generational. The primary debate in Israel is not really about the cost of releasing convicted terrorists for hostages. It is almost a foregone conclusion that that is what Israelis will choose to do if it is the best way to bring their people home. No, the real question is this: bring the hostages home now and destroy Hamas later; or, destroy Hamas now and bring the hostages home later. This has been the real debate all this time, and certainly since Hamas held their “victory parades” over the dead bodies of hostages; over the bodies of Jewish children that were murdered with bare hands.
That’s not to say that there aren’t a few Israelis that just want to end it all and go back to the way things were; that is, with Hamas still clinging to power in Gaza. But by and large, Israelis have utterly abandoned hope in the ‘deterrence’ plan Netanyahu tried and failed with for two decades. The “just wait it out” plan. The only fruit that bore was October 7th. There is no question that October 7th was the largest security failure since the Yom Kippur War in Israel. And many, many Israelis have had their trust utterly shattered by it. They cannot trust a fence, no matter how high it is built, if on the other side of that fence are thousands upon thousands of radicalized terrorists just waiting for an opening.
So we have the two main camps. The majority want to see a hostage deal immediately. This is because the torture and agony is simply too much, on both the hostages themselves and their families and really the entire nation. I cannot describe it, but I feel it even an ocean away. There is a unity of spirit in the people of Israel; when one heart is captive, they all are. It is inhumane to allow it to persist a second longer. So whatever needs to happen to bring everyone home now, they believe should happen, and then perhaps either a diplomatic or military solution to permanently remove Hamas from Gaza (and, eventually, Judea and Samaria; a much bigger ask.)
On the other side, there are those who believe the costs will simply be too great if Hamas demands, say, complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip—which means withdrawal from the Philadelphi corridor on the border with Egypt—and perhaps a thousand more convicted terrorists in Israeli prisons to be let free. That would prolong the war for perhaps years. Hamas resupplying through the porous Egyptian border for who knows how long is not a good prospect for those who want peace in the region. Additionally, there are arguments that the hostages may be able to be militarily rescued, such as what happened with the rescue of Noa Argamani and three other hostages in that mission. I cannot speak to the operational side of things, but it is also possible that continued military pressure may be able to bring a better deal of sorts; though the veracity of that claim is challenged by the length of combat already.
Both sides have good arguments and reasons. Neither side is wrong or stupid for thinking the way they think and feeling the way they feel. The hostages must be rescued immediately, and Hamas must be destroyed as soon as humanly possible. All else is secondary; even the victims who will have justice denied for their killers or attackers going free. I am sorry if that sounds harsh. It’s just how I see it as an observer.
The hostages are the greatest leverage Hamas holds. They were the only true leverage they ever had, besides holding the Palestinians themselves hostage through their own war strategy. Hamas was easily planning for a million casualties in Gaza. They wanted a million casualties in Gaza. For that is how terrorists wage war: by inflicting so much destruction on civilian populations that no human with a soul could tolerate it. The terrorists of Hamas do not have souls. They care not one iota for the lives of Palestinians in Gaza or anywhere. Their only, only concern is the complete and total destruction of the Jewish state. They would kill every last Palestinian (including themselves) if it would accomplish that goal.
How do you negotiate with someone like that? How do you broker a “ceasefire” that lasts?
You can’t. It is utterly foolish to trust the word of a terrorist. The instant your back is turned, they’ll shoot a rocket at it and have their global propaganda machine try to force you into a “ceasefire” before you have the chance to respond.
Which is why, ultimately, this war is far from over. If a “permanent ceasefire” is brokered in the coming days or weeks, the history books will likely record it as the end of the Simchat Torah War of 2023. But it won’t end; not really. Not until Hamas is destroyed. And maybe not until Ayatollah Khamenei’s ‘War of Terror’ is put to rest permanently.
עם ישראל חי